Introduction
For over a decade, the Global Risks Report series has shed light on the increasing interconnectedness and rapidly evolving nature of global risks. As of its 2015 edition, the Report has put forward actionable solutions to address global risks, the scope of which is beyond the domain of just one actor. As global risks are increasingly felt in tangible ways by institutions, economies and people alike, the Global Risks Report 2016 calls for the “Resilience Imperative” – an urgent necessity to find new avenues and additional opportunities to withstand, mitigate, adapt to and build resilience against global risks and threats through collaboration among stakeholders.
To inform the debate on how to strengthen resilience against a variety of global risks, the Global Agenda Council on Risk & Resilience has embarked on a series of resilience-use cases with a joint focus on identifying measures that entities of all types and sizes can take to increase resilience and distilling what each stakeholder can bring to the collaboration table. Starting with support for a Forum-led use case on addressing future epidemics1 , published in June 2015, the Council developed “Building Resilience in Nepal through Public-Private Partnerships” in October 2015 and will close the cycle by discussing the need and options for public-private collaboration to strengthen cyber resilience in May 2016.
In the following “Resilience Insights”, the Global Agenda Council on Risk & Resilience takes on three of the key findings of the Global Risks Report 2016 by exploring the “how” to build resilience to the “what” discussed in the Report. “Building Resilience to Water Crises” follows up on the Global Risks Report 2016 on “Coping with the Changing Climate”. Today, the world is estimated to be about 1°C warmer, on average, than it was in the 1950s, and adverse effects are starting to be felt across countries, societies, businesses and citizens alike. An average increase of one degree across the planet means significant changes in climatic extremes: the heat is not only melting glaciers and sea ice, it is also shifting precipitation patterns and setting animals on the move. While much hope lies in the historic Paris Agreement adopted on 12 December 2015 at COP21 (the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties, also known as the 2015 Paris Climate Conference), mitigating climate change will have a braking distance of several decades. Climate resilience is, therefore, paramount and water resilience is key to addressing the negative effects of climate change.
Against this backdrop, “Building Resilience to Water Crises” takes the discussion further by looking at the challenges posed by the interconnectedness of the risk of water crises with other societal risks and in the face of the water crises risk, how to develop effective water management. It then briefly proposes innovative solutions to build water resilience.
Departing from the slow-burning environmental risks, “Building Resilience to Large-Scale Involuntary Migration” addresses the immediate challenges of large-scale involuntary migration explored in the Global Risks Report 2016. With close to 60 million people on the move – or 50% more than during the Second World War – an average displacement duration of 20 years compared with only nine years in the 1980s2 , and migration flows not only crossing borders but also continents, the Global Risks Report 2016 calls for policies that can build resilience to continuing involuntary migration in addition to responding to the immediate crisis. Rather than attempt to address the many components of related resilience given the complexity of the risk, the insights focus in depth on two components of building resilience to large-scale involuntary migration: fostering positive economic impact and refugee integration, outlining possible steps.
Introduction “Building Resilience to Large-Scale Cyberattacks” explores the resilience imperative in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. As in 2015, the risk of cyberattacks is considered a highimpact/high likelihood risk in the Global Risks Report 2016, yet somewhat surprisingly other related global risks, such as adverse consequences of technological advances, breakdown of critical information infrastructure and massive incidence of data theft/fraud rank low globally.3 The Global Risks Report 2016, therefore, warns of “the failure to understand the risks related to technology, primarily the systemic cascading effects of cyber risks or the breakdown of critical information infrastructure”, as more organizations digitize their unique business value within increasingly connected environments that rely more and more on machine-learning and automated decision-making. The insights present four areas for decision-makers and risk managers to consider. The recommendations include actions that both nation states and individual entities virtually connected in some way should consider towards building resilience to a persistent and growing risk.
Given the complexities of quickly evolving risks within a transformative environment, the pace of change is exceeding the ability of many organizations to develop the risk management and resilience leadership, expertise and processes to confidently adapt to the “new normal”. This document is meant to serve as a companion to the Global Risks Report 2016. The intention of the Global Agenda Council on Risk & Resilience is to ensure that, jointly, these resilience insights can spark a more in-depth discussion about how to best build and strengthen resilience to today’s risks.
Identifying and understanding global risks is only the first step; we must work collectively in partnership using all the capabilities and capacities at our mutual disposal to address them.